Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:09 pm at Bozeman); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	8h 30m	97%	83%
United Details →	BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 22:04 → EWR 06:39 +1UA 576	11h 13m	98%	81%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698	11h 34m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	BZN 18:58 → SEA 20:02AS 3498 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314	10h 01m	96%	66%
United Details →	BZN 16:24 → ORD 20:40UA 1744	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	6h 29m	75%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON