Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1187 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1187 BZN 05:50 → LAS 06:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1137 BZN 19:15 → LAS 20:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1187 Southwest	BZN 05:50	LAS 06:58	3%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 1136 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 10:15	LAS 11:25	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 3176 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 18:15	LAS 19:25	15%	5%	0.5%	92%
WN 1137 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 19:15	LAS 20:25	16%	5%	0.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON