tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 54m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 5h 45m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → BZN 10:33 → DEN 12:25UA 1824 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 9h 21m 100% 64%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 2h 48m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 8h 27m 97% 64%
DeltaDetails → BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 5h 49m 88% 63%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 15m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 04m 94% 62%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:05 → LGA 14:45WN 2813 6h 35m 98% 62%
AmericanDetails → BZN 11:39 → DFW 15:45AA 1653 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 10h 06m 99% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON