tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4738 at 07:35, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4738 Southwest Flight history → BZN 07:35 MDW 11:25 9% 2% 0.2% 93%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 2h 45m Denver DEN 10:30 → MDW 13:55WN 1675 6h 45m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 19:15 → LAS 20:25WN 1137 3h 30m Las Vegas LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276 9h 10m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 11:15 → DEN 12:55WN 1131 2h 55m Denver DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603 7h 00m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 16:30 → DEN 18:20WN 1133 2h 35m Denver DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683 6h 51m 97% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 14:50 → DEN 16:35WN 1132 2h 20m Denver DEN 18:55 → MDW 22:21WN 2775 6h 31m 96% 72%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 13:50 → SAN 15:30WN 1139 3h 15m San Diego SAN 18:45 → MDW 00:44 +1WN 2395 9h 54m 97% 65%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 54m 81% 60%
DeltaDetails → BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226 1h 54m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 5h 48m 98% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BZN 10:15 → LAS 11:25WN 1136 51m Las Vegas LAS 12:16 → MDW 17:49WN 759 6h 34m 53% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON