tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 6416 at 13:16, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6416 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → BZN 13:16 PHX 14:48 16% 8% 0.7% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 08:05 → PHX 08:44DL 1447 4h 29m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 7h 46m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 2h 00m Denver DEN 09:45 → PHX 10:43WN 2303 5h 33m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 7h 30m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:54 → SEA 16:58DL 4174 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Seattle SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447 8h 39m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 5h 01m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 16:30 → DEN 18:20WN 1133 3h 50m Denver DEN 22:10 → PHX 23:10WN 1685 7h 40m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 31m Denver DEN 09:55 → PHX 11:01UA 1782 5h 31m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:20 → ORD 17:29AA 1501 54m Chicago ORD 18:23 → PHX 20:33AA 2965 8h 13m 73% 52%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 18:58 → SEA 20:02AS 3498 · flown by SkyWest 48m Seattle SEA 20:50 → PHX 23:49AS 644 5h 51m 66% 47%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 15:05 → SEA 16:05AS 286 50m Seattle SEA 16:55 → PHX 19:53AS 744 5h 48m 69% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON