Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:15 am at Bozeman)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1139 at 13:50, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1139 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 13:50	SAN 15:30	25%	4%	0.6%	63%
AS 2050 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 13:50	SAN 15:34	33%	4%	0.0%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:45 → SAN 08:41DL 1177	4h 26m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572	7h 51m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202	5h 20m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:56DL 2946	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36DL 2145	8h 00m	97%	76%
United Details →	BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:57UA 1693	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683	8h 25m	92%	75%
United Details →	BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741	3h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594	7h 28m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SAN 15:56DL 1210	4h 43m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	8h 24m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon	48m Portland	PDX 17:38 → SAN 20:13AS 667	5h 09m	74%	53%
American Details →	BZN 13:45 → ORD 18:07AA 3177	53m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → SAN 21:22AA 1924	8h 37m	69%	45%
Alaska Details →	BZN 15:05 → SEA 16:05AS 286	49m Seattle	SEA 16:54 → SAN 19:43AS 791	5h 38m	68%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON