Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 461 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day AS 461 BZN 06:03 → SEA 06:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 286 BZN 15:05 → SEA 16:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 461 Alaska Flight history →	BZN 06:03	SEA 06:57	7%	4%	0.7%	100%
DL 4092 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 08:25	SEA 09:28	16%	7%	0.6%	91%
DL 4174 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:54	SEA 16:58	18%	5%	0.5%	84%
AS 3498 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 18:58	SEA 20:02	20%	5%	0.6%	57%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	BZN 15:05	SEA 16:05	22%	4%	0.7%	71%
AS 2141 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 10:26	SEA 11:23	14%	2%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON