Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 491 BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3916 BZN 15:15 → SLC 16:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 491 Delta Flight history →	BZN 05:15	SLC 06:34	2%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 3676 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 19:30	SLC 20:55	6%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1971 Delta Flight history →	BZN 12:13	SLC 13:39	6%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 3916 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:15	SLC 16:40	6%	3%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON