Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5587 CAE 11:07 → CLT 12:07 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5143 CAE 14:37 → CLT 15:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5587 PSA	CAE 11:07	CLT 12:07	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5608 PSA	CAE 16:12	CLT 17:12	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5505 PSA	CAE 07:04	CLT 08:04	16%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 5143 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 14:37	CLT 15:37	18%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 5855 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 05:00	CLT 06:09	4%	1%	1.3%	96%
AA 6048 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 08:49	CLT 10:07	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AA 6042 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:10	CLT 12:22	6%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 07:06	CLT 08:24	19%	10%	0.0%	81%
AA 5998 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 12:31	CLT 13:45	22%	10%	0.0%	78%
AA 6047 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 14:32	CLT 15:48	24%	6%	0.0%	76%
AA 6045 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 18:03	CLT 19:21	25%	12%	4.2%	75%
AA 6046 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 16:10	CLT 17:27	26%	16%	0.0%	74%
AA 6043 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 20:30	CLT 21:46	46%	13%	2.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON