Today: YX 4590 at 19:28 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–39%.

Safest bet today YX 4590 CAE 19:28 → DCA 21:18 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5108 CAE 19:38 → DCA 21:20 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4590 Republic	CAE 19:28	DCA 21:18	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
OH 5378 PSA	CAE 10:49	DCA 12:25	26%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 10:39	DCA 12:19	27%	9%	1.3%	76%
AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 19:38	DCA 21:20	39%	13%	1.1%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON