Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4066 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4066 CAE 07:00 → DFW 08:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2923 CAE 17:15 → DFW 19:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4066 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CAE 07:00	DFW 08:50	13%	4%	1.8%	81%
AA 2370 American	CAE 07:25	DFW 09:27	18%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 3449 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CAE 19:23	DFW 21:13	25%	3%	0.9%	60%
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 13:56	DFW 15:50	27%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 5109 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 13:57	DFW 15:45	27%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 2923 American	CAE 17:15	DFW 19:06	30%	9%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON