Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4506 CAE 15:38 → LGA 17:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 4697 CAE 15:12 → LGA 17:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CAE 15:38	LGA 17:49	16%	6%	0.8%	69%
AA 4697 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CAE 15:12	LGA 17:16	19%	7%	0.8%	75%
DL 5089 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 16:05	LGA 18:06	29%	14%	9.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON