Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:45 pm at Chattanooga); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3150 at 20:23, 29%.

Safest bet today DL 3150 CHA 20:23 → ATL 21:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest DL 3579 CHA 19:19 → ATL 20:19 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3150 Delta Flight history →	CHA 20:23	ATL 21:30	29%	7%	1.1%	65%
DL 3124 Delta	CHA 18:21	ATL 19:22	31%	7%	0.9%	no record
DL 3141 Delta Flight history →	CHA 14:50	ATL 15:52	33%	9%	0.7%	77%
9E 4925 Endeavor	CHA 16:00	ATL 17:03	35%	12%	1.2%	no record
DL 5376 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 19:25	ATL 20:28	38%	13%	1.4%	78%worse than usual
DL 1737 Delta Flight history →	CHA 13:10	ATL 14:08	39%	7%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
DL 3579 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 19:19	ATL 20:19	69%	20%	1.2%	51%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON