Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3451 at 12:18 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3451 CHA 12:18 → DFW 13:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2037 CHA 15:59 → DFW 17:20 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3451 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CHA 12:18	DFW 13:36	19%	6%	0.9%	84%
MQ 4078 Envoy	CHA 12:26	DFW 13:48	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 5115 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 20:14	DFW 21:31	28%	11%	1.8%	64%
AA 426 American Flight history →	CHA 07:36	DFW 09:05	28%	8%	2.7%	63%
AA 2121 American Flight history →	CHA 16:22	DFW 17:44	35%	12%	1.9%	40%
AA 2037 American	CHA 15:59	DFW 17:20	41%	13%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON