Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:31 pm at Chattanooga); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5117 at 15:01, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5117 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 15:01	DTW 16:50	22%	4%	0.4%	79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CHA 14:08 → ORD 14:31UA 4571 · flown by GoJet	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → DTW 20:27UA 642	6h 19m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	5h 23m	92%	66%
American Details →	CHA 19:51 → CLT 21:08AA 5964 · flown by Piedmont	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	4h 50m	94%	64%
Delta Details →	CHA 16:17 → LGA 18:22DL 4675 · flown by Endeavor	2h 08m New York	LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51DL 1014	6h 34m	88%	60%
Delta Details →	CHA 19:19 → ATL 20:19DL 3579 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	5h 40m	85%	58%
American Details →	CHA 16:22 → DFW 17:44AA 2121	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:53 → DTW 23:28AA 313	7h 06m	78%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CHA 14:08 → ORD 14:31UA 4571 · flown by GoJet	58m Chicago	ORD 15:29 → DTW 17:51UA 2632	3h 43m	62%	48%
American Details →	CHA 16:22 → DFW 17:44AA 2121	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36AA 3108	6h 14m	53%	37%
Delta Details →	CHA 19:19 → ATL 20:19DL 3579 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651	4h 25m	53%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON