Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:51 pm at Chattanooga)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: UA 4413 at 18:06, 47%.

Nonstops today


UA 4413 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	CHA 18:06	EWR 20:33	47%	14%	1.4%	53%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 19:19 → ATL 20:19DL 3579 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	5h 39m	82%	58%
United Details →	CHA 16:43 → IAH 17:57UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest	1h 58m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	7h 54m	82%	57%
Delta Details →	CHA 15:23 → DTW 16:38DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30DL 2567	4h 07m	80%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON