Today: AA 4512 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–29%.

Safest bet today AA 4512 CHA 06:13 → ORD 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 4680 CHA 10:18 → ORD 11:19 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4512 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHA 06:13	ORD 07:35	7%	3%	0.5%	87%
MQ 3852 Envoy	CHA 10:08	ORD 11:08	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4680 SkyWest	CHA 10:18	ORD 11:19	29%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 4540 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 06:00	ORD 06:59	14%	5%	0.0%	86%
UA 4407 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 10:27	ORD 11:29	20%	9%	1.3%	80%
UA 4571 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 13:53	ORD 14:55	31%	9%	2.8%	69%
UA 4434 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 19:07	ORD 20:12	33%	7%	12.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON