Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1620 ORD 17:59 → SFO 20:46 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:47	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:50	SFO 09:27	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2543 American Flight history →	ORD 06:29	SFO 09:05	9%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 3752 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	SJC 12:30	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	11%	6%	0.6%	63%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	SFO 11:38	12%	5%	0.6%	54%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	12%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 2251 United Flight history →	ORD 15:57	SFO 18:49	13%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 481 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SJC 22:43	13%	5%	0.7%	67%
WN 3366 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	OAK 12:40	13%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	13%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 511 United Flight history →	ORD 16:30	SFO 19:24	14%	8%	0.6%	61%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	15%	8%	0.6%	74%
AA 1586 American Flight history →	ORD 08:43	SFO 11:25	15%	5%	0.7%	58%
UA 1495 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SFO 22:57	17%	7%	0.6%	45%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	ORD 11:05	SFO 13:46	18%	6%	0.7%	41%
WN 2659 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:50	SJC 23:30	18%	5%	0.7%	38%
WN 1546 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	SFO 12:35	19%	6%	0.6%	12%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	20%	8%	0.6%	48%
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	23%	8%	0.7%	70%
WN 4042 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	OAK 00:15	23%	4%	0.7%	48%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	ORD 21:17	SFO 23:59	24%	6%	0.7%	32%
WN 2893 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:30	SFO 00:15	24%	6%	0.7%	51%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	ORD 17:59	SFO 20:46	25%	9%	0.7%	34%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → SJC 09:25WN 494	6h 10m	98%	92%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	6h 10m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → OAK 09:45WN 3303	6h 25m	90%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON