Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 738 at 05:19 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 738 MDW 05:19 → DAL 07:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2999 MDW 18:17 → DFW 20:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 738 Southwest	MDW 05:19	DAL 07:42	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1377 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:00	DAL 07:15	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 3796 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:40	DAL 09:00	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1426 Southwest	MDW 07:19	DAL 09:41	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	7%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	8%	4%	0.5%	79%
AA 2279 American	ORD 05:40	DFW 08:14	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 1487 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:00	DAL 12:15	10%	2%	0.6%	73%
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:12	11%	5%	0.5%	77%
UA 685 United Flight history →	ORD 12:20	DFW 15:03	11%	5%	0.5%	74%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	11%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 2757 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:20	DAL 14:35	11%	2%	0.6%	71%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	11%	6%	0.6%	65%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DFW 09:35	11%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 1022 American	ORD 07:05	DFW 09:38	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3544 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:24	DFW 22:06	11%	3%	0.7%	73%
WN 35 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	DAL 13:15	12%	2%	0.6%	50%
AA 3052 American Flight history →	ORD 09:40	DFW 12:13	12%	6%	0.7%	82%
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	12%	5%	0.7%	71%
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	12%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:40	DAL 22:55	16%	3%	0.6%	50%
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 09:28	DFW 12:20	16%	9%	0.8%	72%
WN 2758 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:20	DAL 18:35	17%	3%	0.6%	52%
AA 2222 American Flight history →	ORD 11:00	DFW 13:33	17%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 3264 American Flight history →	ORD 12:05	DFW 14:39	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 2600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	DFW 23:32	20%	8%	0.7%	52%
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:08	DFW 08:41	22%	5%	0.8%	60%
WN 2961 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:25	DAL 20:40	22%	4%	0.6%	58%
AA 1120 American Flight history →	ORD 13:25	DFW 15:59	22%	7%	0.6%	49%
AA 2754 American Flight history →	ORD 15:49	DFW 18:25	24%	8%	0.6%	63%
AA 2257 American Flight history →	ORD 14:59	DFW 17:35	25%	8%	0.6%	65%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	ORD 16:51	DFW 19:28	26%	9%	0.6%	46%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:19	DFW 20:56	30%	9%	0.6%	41%
F9 2999 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 18:17	DFW 20:54	33%	12%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON