tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 47 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4637 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4637 MDW 05:10 → LAX 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 188 MDW 18:00 → LAX 20:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 4637 Southwest Flight history → MDW 05:10 LAX 07:25 5% 1% 0.5% 88%
UA 1304 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 SNA 11:21 9% 3% 0.5% 79%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:29 LAX 10:00 9% 3% 0.5% 80%
WN 1749 Southwest MDW 07:00 LAX 09:16 10% 1% 0.4% no record
UA 2361 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LAX 09:33 10% 3% 0.6% 90%
UA 2373 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 LAX 08:27 10% 2% 0.6% 89%
AA 699 American ORD 08:15 SNA 10:58 11% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 2679 American Flight history → ORD 08:14 SNA 10:33 11% 3% 0.7% 87%
UA 2814 United Flight history → ORD 08:48 LAX 11:26 12% 3% 0.6% 82%
AA 607 American Flight history → ORD 06:00 LAX 08:20 12% 2% 0.9% 88%
UA 2170 United ORD 10:47 LAX 13:16 12% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2741 Southwest Flight history → MDW 10:05 BUR 12:25 12% 2% 0.7% 88%
UA 1363 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LAX 15:34 13% 5% 0.6% 83%
UA 308 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 SNA 22:19 14% 4% 0.6% 84%
DL 967 Delta Flight history → ORD 14:42 LAX 17:14 14% 4% 0.5% 68%
WN 2846 Southwest Flight history → MDW 11:45 ONT 13:50 14% 3% 0.5% 55%
AA 1979 American Flight history → ORD 10:38 LAX 13:14 14% 5% 0.8% 74%
AA 661 American ORD 12:05 SNA 14:43 15% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 1628 American Flight history → ORD 06:51 LAX 09:14 15% 3% 0.8% 70%
WN 1908 Southwest MDW 09:50 LAX 12:06 15% 2% 0.4% no record
WN 3508 Southwest MDW 11:55 ONT 14:07 15% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 3035 Southwest MDW 12:00 LGB 14:38 15% 2% 0.5% no record
UA 1107 United Flight history → ORD 16:20 SNA 18:52 15% 6% 0.5% 69%
UA 374 United Flight history → ORD 14:30 LAX 17:05 15% 6% 0.6% 80%
UA 576 United Flight history → ORD 15:47 LAX 18:20 15% 5% 0.6% 76%
AA 1009 American ORD 07:06 LAX 09:19 15% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history → MDW 10:10 LAX 12:30 16% 2% 0.4% 73%
UA 2499 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 LAX 22:55 16% 6% 0.6% 58%
UA 661 United Flight history → ORD 21:30 LAX 00:09 16% 6% 0.6% 64%
AA 2012 American Flight history → ORD 08:10 LAX 10:35 16% 4% 0.8% 70%
AA 2718 American Flight history → ORD 12:00 LAX 14:21 16% 6% 0.8% 73%
AA 3008 American Flight history → ORD 12:05 LAX 14:25 16% 6% 0.8% 79%
UA 600 United Flight history → ORD 16:45 LAX 19:16 18% 6% 0.6% 68%
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 18% 8% 0.6% 60%
AA 2640 American Flight history → ORD 12:00 SNA 14:20 19% 6% 0.7% 73%
DL 2298 Delta Flight history → ORD 18:35 LAX 21:12 20% 5% 0.5% 76%
WN 4413 Southwest Flight history → MDW 13:15 LGB 15:30 20% 3% 0.5% 69%
UA 1967 United Flight history → ORD 18:10 LAX 20:40 20% 6% 0.6% 69%
AA 529 American Flight history → ORD 15:21 LAX 17:43 23% 8% 0.8% 59%
AA 1437 American Flight history → ORD 17:10 LAX 19:33 23% 9% 0.8% 55%
AA 519 American Flight history → ORD 17:05 SNA 19:27 25% 6% 0.8% 63%
AA 613 American Flight history → ORD 20:49 LAX 23:13 25% 9% 0.8% 51%
AA 1209 American Flight history → ORD 22:30 LAX 00:52 25% 6% 0.9% 53%
F9 2445 Frontier Flight history → ORD 21:13 LAX 23:57 26% 11% 1.3% 65%
WN 3364 Southwest Flight history → MDW 21:35 LAX 23:55 30% 5% 0.5% 36%
AA 2364 American Flight history → ORD 19:08 LAX 21:33 31% 9% 0.8% 59%
WN 188 Southwest Flight history → MDW 18:00 LAX 20:20 33% 5% 0.5% 47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989 1h 00m Denver DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15WN 1745 6h 00m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858 56m Phoenix PHX 07:51 → ONT 09:13WN 1919 5h 53m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 59m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 6h 07m 96% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON