Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 30 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2984 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2984 ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 864 ORD 14:35 → FLL 18:49 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2984 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	MIA 09:09	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 1358 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MIA 11:24	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1252 American	ORD 05:47	MIA 09:57	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1380 American Flight history →	ORD 06:10	MIA 10:22	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	ORD 06:17	MIA 10:27	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 835 American Flight history →	ORD 06:59	MIA 11:12	7%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 2464 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:00	MIA 12:00	7%	2%	0.6%	66%
AA 1875 American Flight history →	ORD 07:15	MIA 11:28	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 1250 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	MIA 12:45	9%	3%	0.7%	75%
WN 4409 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:50	FLL 11:55	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 1851 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:04	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1620 United Flight history →	ORD 10:33	MIA 14:57	10%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 2342 United Flight history →	ORD 10:50	PBI 14:51	11%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	11%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	ORD 08:08	PBI 12:12	11%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 1474 American Flight history →	ORD 10:05	MIA 14:18	12%	4%	0.7%	82%
UA 2635 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	FLL 18:15	14%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 2180 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	MIA 22:27	14%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 2294 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	FLL 22:15	15%	6%	0.6%	66%
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:14	15%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 672 American Flight history →	ORD 12:35	FLL 16:43	19%	5%	0.6%	56%
AA 2275 American Flight history →	ORD 13:51	PBI 18:03	19%	6%	0.9%	70%
WN 4899 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 15:25	FLL 19:25	20%	4%	0.6%	51%
AA 3148 American Flight history →	ORD 14:29	MIA 18:48	21%	7%	0.9%	51%
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 08:05	FLL 12:22	22%	6%	0.8%	68%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 16:05	MIA 20:26	22%	7%	1.0%	39%
AA 2690 American Flight history →	ORD 17:59	MIA 22:20	23%	8%	1.2%	45%
WN 2777 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:35	FLL 23:35	24%	5%	0.6%	45%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	30%	10%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON