Today: UA 2766 at 21:40 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–40%.

Safest bet today UA 2766 ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest WN 2406 MDW 21:11 → DCA 23:26 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 73 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2766 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAD 00:45	20%	7%	0.2%	69%
UA 1922 United	ORD 22:11	IAD 01:14	20%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 675 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	BWI 00:28	26%	11%	0.2%	60%
AA 514 American	ORD 21:16	DCA 23:54	33%	10%	0.3%	no record
WN 2851 Southwest	MDW 21:10	BWI 23:44	35%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 3222 American	ORD 21:32	BWI 00:02	37%	14%	0.3%	no record
WN 2406 Southwest	MDW 21:11	DCA 23:26	40%	6%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON