Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:56 pm at Charleston); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39% (calm day: 24%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:59, 56% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 19:59 → ATL 21:26DL 3179	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	5h 21m	84%	56%
Southwest Details →	CHS 19:35 → BWI 21:20WN 1144	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 22:30 → BOS 00:10 +1WN 892	4h 35m	86%	27%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHS 19:51 → DCA 21:30AA 1654	1h 00m Washington	DCA 22:30 → BOS 23:59AA 4051 · flown by Envoy	4h 08m	72%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON