Today looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 22–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1658 CHS 13:00 → CLT 14:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 5086 CHS 19:50 → CLT 21:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1658 American Flight history →	CHS 13:00	CLT 14:11	22%	6%	0.6%	78%
AA 1927 American Flight history →	CHS 16:31	CLT 17:35	22%	6%	0.6%	80%
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CHS 18:58	CLT 20:02	24%	7%	0.6%	54%
OH 5209 PSA	CHS 13:15	CLT 14:24	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
OH 5167 PSA	CHS 20:12	CLT 21:21	26%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 5672 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 18:17	CLT 19:40	28%	8%	1.1%	73%
AA 5118 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 15:12	CLT 16:30	28%	9%	1.2%	63%
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 19:50	CLT 21:10	31%	8%	1.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON