Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:52 am at Charleston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 974 Southwest	CHS 18:40	DAL 20:27	26%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 15:15	DAL 16:50	26%	4%	0.5%	46%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CHS 08:00 → MDW 09:15WN 4167	3h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 35m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	CHS 16:10 → BWI 17:45WN 470	3h 28m Baltimore	BWI 21:13 → DAL 23:41WN 991	8h 31m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	CHS 10:35 → BWI 12:10WN 1143	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932	6h 40m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	CHS 16:45 → STL 17:50WN 493	4h 00m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:41WN 4056	7h 56m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	CHS 13:30 → AUS 15:10WN 1140	3h 55m Austin	AUS 19:05 → DAL 20:10WN 2134	7h 40m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	CHS 12:00 → HOU 13:30WN 356	2h 30m Houston	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	6h 10m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	CHS 17:55 → MDW 19:10WN 4787	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 20:40 → DAL 22:55WN 1005	6h 00m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 22m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CHS 17:40 → DEN 19:25WN 1145	46m Denver	DEN 20:11 → DAL 23:11WN 1579	6h 31m	59%	41%
Southwest Details →	CHS 13:30 → AUS 15:10WN 1140	55m Austin	AUS 16:05 → DAL 17:15WN 277	4h 45m	36%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON