Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3089 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3089 CHS 06:00 → DCA 07:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1654 CHS 19:51 → DCA 21:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3089 American Flight history →	CHS 06:00	DCA 07:35	11%	4%	0.9%	97%
AA 2773 American	CHS 05:53	DCA 07:31	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 16:15	DCA 17:59	20%	6%	2.3%	58%
MQ 3891 Envoy	CHS 11:31	DCA 13:12	22%	6%	1.6%	no record
YX 4651 Republic	CHS 19:33	DCA 21:18	23%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 5659 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 10:45	DCA 12:32	24%	12%	1.8%	64%
AA 5123 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 14:10	DCA 15:59	28%	16%	2.2%	61%
AA 5607 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 14:20	DCA 16:08	30%	14%	2.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 5568 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 16:29	DCA 18:16	34%	19%	2.7%	60%
AA 1654 American Flight history →	CHS 19:51	DCA 21:30	37%	9%	2.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON