Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 557 CHS 16:13 → DEN 18:14 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 1145 CHS 17:40 → DEN 19:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 557 United Flight history →	CHS 16:13	DEN 18:14	21%	6%	0.3%	74%
UA 2757 United Flight history →	CHS 16:16	DEN 18:11	21%	6%	0.3%	57%
WN 482 Southwest	CHS 17:04	DEN 18:15	31%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 1145 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 17:40	DEN 19:25	31%	5%	0.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON