Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1435 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1435 CHS 06:57 → DFW 08:56 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1656 CHS 15:42 → DFW 17:39 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1435 American Flight history →	CHS 06:57	DFW 08:56	14%	5%	2.1%	92%
AA 1553 American Flight history →	CHS 07:01	DFW 08:58	16%	5%	2.1%	97%worse than usual
MQ 4005 Envoy	CHS 13:13	DFW 15:16	19%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 5396 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 12:58	DFW 14:50	25%	9%	1.8%	87%worse than usual
AA 1662 American Flight history →	CHS 19:53	DFW 21:48	37%	9%	1.3%	57%
AA 2166 American Flight history →	CHS 15:33	DFW 17:32	38%	10%	1.8%	76%worse than usual
AA 1656 American Flight history →	CHS 15:42	DFW 17:39	39%	9%	1.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON