Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3016 CHS 18:43 → DTW 20:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2676 CHS 18:43 → DTW 20:45 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 3016 Delta	CHS 18:43	DTW 20:48	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 2676 Delta Flight history →	CHS 18:43	DTW 20:45	17%	6%	0.4%	82%
DL 5431 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 13:00	DTW 15:11	24%	11%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON