Today: AA 4664 at 11:53 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet today AA 4664 CHS 11:53 → LGA 14:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1404 CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4664 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 11:53	LGA 14:05	18%	6%	0.7%	88%
AA 4614 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 12:05	LGA 14:15	18%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 4588 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 18:10	LGA 20:20	25%	7%	1.0%	71%
DL 5591 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 18:21	LGA 20:30	28%	8%	1.0%	66%
AA 4351 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 17:22	LGA 19:28	28%	7%	1.0%	60%
DL 2013 Delta	CHS 11:40	LGA 13:37	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	CHS 15:42	LGA 17:48	35%	11%	1.0%	63%
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 11:25	LGA 13:27	20%	8%	3.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON