Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2333 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3192 CHS 16:02 → ORD 17:36 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	ORD 07:33	7%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 3027 American Flight history →	CHS 08:56	ORD 10:30	8%	6%	0.6%	90%
AA 2154 American	CHS 07:13	ORD 08:44	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2821 United	CHS 11:25	ORD 12:54	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 592 United Flight history →	CHS 11:31	ORD 13:09	13%	5%	0.9%	89%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	CHS 12:44	ORD 14:18	16%	6%	1.3%	87%
AA 3454 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CHS 20:21	ORD 22:00	17%	5%	1.3%	77%
UA 3426 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 15:08	ORD 16:54	22%	6%	1.9%	66%
UA 2680 United	CHS 16:57	ORD 18:23	25%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 5729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHS 18:52	ORD 20:31	27%	10%	1.3%	57%
AA 3192 American	CHS 16:02	ORD 17:36	28%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON