Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2734 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2734 CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2409 CLE 15:46 → ATL 17:49 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2734 Delta Flight history →	CLE 05:35	ATL 07:22	8%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 1500 Delta Flight history →	CLE 10:15	ATL 11:59	13%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 775 Delta Flight history →	CLE 14:27	ATL 16:17	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2838 Delta Flight history →	CLE 07:05	ATL 08:55	14%	4%	0.7%	93%
DL 349 Delta Flight history →	CLE 08:05	ATL 09:55	14%	4%	0.7%	93%
DL 2545 Delta Flight history →	CLE 16:28	ATL 18:22	15%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 2978 Delta Flight history →	CLE 12:37	ATL 14:29	15%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 880 Delta Flight history →	CLE 18:08	ATL 20:13	16%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 1350 Delta Flight history →	CLE 19:37	ATL 21:44	17%	6%	0.8%	77%
F9 2467 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:40	ATL 09:01	26%	10%	1.5%	77%
F9 2409 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 15:46	ATL 17:49	45%	16%	0.9%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON