Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5684 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 5684 CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 640 CLE 16:38 → BOS 18:29 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5684 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 06:05	BOS 08:07	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 11:15	BOS 13:14	8%	4%	0.6%	90%
B6 1340 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 09:16	BOS 11:06	15%	9%	0.7%	88%
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:50	BOS 19:58	17%	9%	0.7%	71%
B6 2040 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 11:30	BOS 13:20	18%	10%	0.7%	81%
B6 640 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 16:38	BOS 18:29	34%	25%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON