Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2310 CLE 06:00 → BWI 07:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4295 CLE 17:45 → BWI 19:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2310 Southwest	CLE 06:00	BWI 07:27	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1153 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 06:00	BWI 07:20	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 937 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 10:50	BWI 12:10	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 3371 Southwest	CLE 12:40	BWI 14:06	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4295 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 17:45	BWI 19:05	13%	4%	0.5%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON