Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2632 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2632 CLE 05:01 → CLT 06:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1679 CLE 19:31 → CLT 21:16 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2632 American Flight history →	CLE 05:01	CLT 06:42	8%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 3165 American	CLE 05:03	CLT 06:48	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2021 American Flight history →	CLE 08:06	CLT 09:50	16%	4%	1.6%	86%
OH 5170 PSA	CLE 12:02	CLT 13:47	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	CLE 12:08	CLT 13:47	20%	5%	1.2%	67%
AA 568 American	CLE 13:49	CLT 15:31	21%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	CLE 15:54	CLT 17:40	26%	5%	1.2%	70%
AA 1906 American	CLE 17:22	CLT 19:02	31%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 1679 American Flight history →	CLE 19:31	CLT 21:16	34%	6%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON