Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4737 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 4737 CLE 08:46 → DCA 10:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5132 CLE 19:59 → DCA 21:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4737 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 08:46	DCA 10:09	10%	4%	0.2%	90%
AA 5411 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 05:22	DCA 06:49	11%	6%	1.3%	83%
YX 4509 Republic	CLE 19:15	DCA 20:51	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5512 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 09:59	DCA 11:31	18%	6%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
MQ 4096 Envoy	CLE 16:43	DCA 18:13	28%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5126 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 14:10	DCA 15:40	30%	15%	0.9%	42%
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 13:43	DCA 15:15	31%	12%	0.9%	69%
AA 5470 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 17:04	DCA 18:36	35%	16%	0.9%	57%
AA 5132 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 19:59	DCA 21:30	35%	18%	1.0%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON