Today: WN 4352 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet today WN 4352 CLE 05:25 → DEN 06:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2887 CLE 17:55 → DEN 19:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4352 Southwest	CLE 05:25	DEN 06:35	3%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 3930 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 05:30	DEN 06:40	3%	1%	0.1%	96%
UA 690 United Flight history →	CLE 08:55	DEN 10:10	7%	3%	0.1%	92%
UA 2246 United Flight history →	CLE 11:10	DEN 12:26	9%	4%	0.1%	89%
UA 486 United Flight history →	CLE 16:38	DEN 18:03	13%	4%	0.5%	82%
WN 3372 Southwest	CLE 16:00	DEN 17:18	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4639 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 13:24	DEN 14:48	15%	8%	0.7%	82%
WN 2887 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 17:55	DEN 19:10	22%	3%	0.5%	51%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLE 20:10 → MDW 20:25WN 1163	54m Chicago	MDW 21:19 → DEN 22:49WN 2908	4h 39m	81%	63%
Southwest Details →	CLE 20:25 → STL 21:00WN 747	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DEN 23:10WN 4067	4h 45m	77%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON