Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1721 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1721 CLE 05:58 → DFW 07:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1230 CLE 19:39 → DFW 21:37 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1721 American	CLE 05:58	DFW 07:58	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2331 American Flight history →	CLE 07:09	DFW 09:08	11%	6%	0.5%	79%
AA 1172 American Flight history →	CLE 11:40	DFW 13:48	18%	5%	1.0%	79%
AA 1680 American Flight history →	CLE 11:51	DFW 13:42	22%	5%	1.0%	77%
F9 4895 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 12:18	DFW 14:32	24%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 2818 American Flight history →	CLE 14:35	DFW 16:35	25%	6%	1.0%	65%
AA 1351 American	CLE 15:34	DFW 17:40	30%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLE 19:52	DFW 21:48	31%	7%	1.0%	56%
AA 1230 American	CLE 19:39	DFW 21:37	37%	7%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON