Today: DL 3532 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–26%.

Safest bet today DL 3532 CLE 06:40 → DTW 07:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 3559 CLE 14:20 → DTW 15:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3532 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 06:40	DTW 07:42	9%	5%	0.2%	86%
DL 3817 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 08:18	DTW 09:19	13%	5%	0.2%	81%
DL 3581 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 15:50	DTW 17:01	16%	8%	0.6%	81%
DL 3559 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 14:20	DTW 15:20	26%	9%	0.2%	81%
DL 5192 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:26	DTW 11:26	17%	10%	0.0%	83%
DL 4957 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:59	DTW 21:04	43%	26%	2.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON