Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 601 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 601 CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 554 CLE 19:08 → EWR 20:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 601 United Flight history →	CLE 07:15	EWR 08:47	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2468 United Flight history →	CLE 08:19	EWR 09:52	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 3424 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 11:50	EWR 13:29	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2782 United	CLE 12:52	EWR 14:40	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 3633 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:42	EWR 19:30	26%	6%	0.8%	80%
UA 1892 United Flight history →	CLE 15:19	EWR 17:00	26%	6%	0.6%	77%
YX 3658 Republic	CLE 17:08	EWR 18:49	27%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 554 United Flight history →	CLE 19:08	EWR 20:45	31%	8%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON