Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 715 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 715 CLE 07:30 → FLL 10:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3452 CLE 16:05 → FLL 18:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 715 United Flight history →	CLE 07:30	FLL 10:14	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2724 United Flight history →	CLE 11:00	FLL 13:45	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
B6 2289 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 07:50	FLL 10:45	11%	6%	0.7%	95%
F9 1046 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 07:45	FLL 10:36	16%	6%	0.7%	94%
F9 3452 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 16:05	FLL 18:57	31%	10%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON