Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1252 CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 780 CLE 15:02 → IAD 16:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1252 United Flight history →	CLE 06:00	IAD 07:15	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 3433 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 19:55	IAD 21:19	7%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 1181 United	CLE 10:33	IAD 11:53	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 445 United Flight history →	CLE 10:37	IAD 11:53	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 780 United Flight history →	CLE 15:02	IAD 16:20	11%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON