Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:58 am at Cleveland); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1545 United Flight history →	CLE 15:11	IAH 17:25	11%	4%	0.2%	90%
UA 1359 United	CLE 18:46	IAH 20:59	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLE 09:00 → ORD 09:34UA 1355	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	7h 40m	100%	88%
United Details →	CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638	7h 23m	99%	88%
United Details →	CLE 07:30 → FLL 10:14UA 715	2h 56m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 13:10 → IAH 15:00UA 2162	8h 30m	100%	87%
American Details →	CLE 09:44 → ORD 10:30AA 6363 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:29 → IAH 16:25AA 4426 · flown by Republic	7h 41m	98%	87%
United Details →	CLE 09:17 → RSW 11:57UA 1100	2h 08m Fort Myers	RSW 14:05 → IAH 15:52UA 1743	7h 35m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CLE 13:42 → MSP 14:45DL 2057	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	8h 53m	98%	83%
United Details →	CLE 10:37 → IAD 11:53UA 445	3h 04m Dulles	IAD 14:57 → IAH 17:20UA 2607	7h 43m	100%	82%
United Details →	CLE 08:57 → ORD 09:32UA 656	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 10:48 → IAH 13:39UA 2767	5h 42m	94%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CLE 16:14 → ORD 16:59UA 3575 · flown by Republic	46m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954	5h 36m	71%	57%
United Details →	CLE 15:19 → EWR 17:00UA 1892	54m Newark	EWR 17:54 → IAH 20:55UA 2782	6h 36m	69%	44%
American Details →	CLE 19:52 → DFW 21:48AA 1682	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	5h 06m	67%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON