Today: AA 4588 at 10:43 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet today AA 4588 CLE 10:43 → JFK 12:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest YX 4379 CLE 17:21 → JFK 19:03 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4588 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 10:43	JFK 12:25	8%	4%	0.5%	98%
AA 4476 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 10:34	JFK 12:19	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
B6 2769 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 06:25	JFK 08:02	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 4389 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:05	JFK 18:59	19%	6%	0.8%	71%
YX 4379 Republic	CLE 17:21	JFK 19:03	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 5008 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:45	JFK 08:30	10%	6%	4.3%	90%
DL 5018 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 11:46	JFK 13:29	17%	9%	4.0%	83%
DL 4975 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 17:15	JFK 19:09	28%	11%	8.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON