tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:06 am at Cleveland)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: UA 765 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet today UA 765 CLE 09:57 → LAS 11:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1821 CLE 21:43 → LAS 23:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time
Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 765 United CLE 09:57 LAS 11:38 10% 4% 0.3% no record
WN 1219 Southwest CLE 10:40 LAS 12:00 11% 3% 0.2% no record
WN 1158 Southwest Flight history → CLE 15:05 LAS 16:30 16% 4% 0.5% 83%
F9 3231 Frontier Flight history → CLE 09:00 LAS 10:32 17% 7% 1.0% 76%
F9 1821 Frontier Flight history → CLE 21:43 LAS 23:16 22% 9% 0.9% 75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:25 → STL 07:00WN 1165 50m St Louis STL 07:50 → LAS 09:20WN 4124 5h 55m 97% 91%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 3930 1h 00m Denver DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559 6h 05m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:50 → BNA 07:20WN 4568 46m Nashville BNA 08:06 → LAS 10:13WN 579 6h 23m 94% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON