Today: UA 679 at 15:42 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–43%.

Safest bet today UA 679 CLE 15:42 → LAX 17:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1352 CLE 18:39 → LAX 20:54 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 679 United Flight history →	CLE 15:42	LAX 17:38	14%	4%	0.4%	92%
UA 592 United	CLE 19:37	LAX 21:37	23%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 650 American Flight history →	CLE 18:43	LAX 20:26	43%	22%	1.0%	63%
AA 1352 American	CLE 18:39	LAX 20:54	43%	23%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLE 20:10 → MDW 20:25WN 1163	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → LAX 23:55WN 3364	6h 45m	75%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON