Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1488 at 12:16, 15%.

Safest bet today UA 1488 CLE 12:16 → MCO 14:43 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2280 CLE 21:47 → MCO 00:21 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1488 United Flight history →	CLE 12:16	MCO 14:43	15%	7%	0.6%	92%
WN 1031 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 13:05	MCO 15:30	19%	5%	0.6%	71%
F9 3916 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 13:42	MCO 16:24	31%	14%	1.5%	72%
WN 1206 Southwest	CLE 17:25	MCO 19:57	31%	9%	0.5%	no record
F9 2280 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:47	MCO 00:21	45%	15%	2.3%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON