Today: AA 2887 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today AA 2887 CLE 06:01 → MIA 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3026 CLE 16:28 → MIA 19:27 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2887 American Flight history →	CLE 06:01	MIA 09:00	6%	2%	0.2%	96%
MQ 3904 Envoy	CLE 19:14	MIA 22:21	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLE 19:08	MIA 22:04	26%	6%	0.7%	78%
F9 2474 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 20:03	MIA 23:05	30%	14%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
F9 3026 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 16:28	MIA 19:27	33%	16%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON