Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1357 CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1118 CLE 19:33 → MSP 20:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1357 Delta Flight history →	CLE 06:00	MSP 07:04	5%	2%	0.3%	92%
DL 1083 Delta	CLE 10:57	MSP 12:05	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2847 Delta Flight history →	CLE 10:48	MSP 11:49	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2057 Delta Flight history →	CLE 13:42	MSP 14:45	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1449 Delta Flight history →	CLE 19:26	MSP 20:37	12%	5%	0.6%	77%
DL 1118 Delta	CLE 19:33	MSP 20:42	12%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON