tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:30 am at Cleveland)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:00 → BWI 07:20WN 1153 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MYR 09:55WN 2997 3h 55m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:50 → BNA 07:20WN 4568 3h 00m Nashville BNA 10:20 → MYR 12:57WN 664 6h 07m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → CLE 06:04 → ORD 06:30AA 1315 2h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → MYR 12:22AA 3733 · flown by Envoy 6h 18m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 16:45 → MDW 17:05WN 1162 2h 40m Chicago MDW 19:45 → MYR 22:50WN 36 6h 05m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → CLE 07:05 → PHL 08:40AA 3302 2h 13m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 5h 57m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 6h 30m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332 7h 19m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → CLE 10:52 → PHL 12:28AA 5847 · flown by Piedmont 3h 51m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 7h 35m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLE 14:10 → DCA 15:40AA 5126 · flown by PSA 1h 19m Washington DCA 16:59 → MYR 18:37AA 3750 · flown by Envoy 4h 27m 74% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON